Re: DM: Credit Score

[Lynd D Bacon]

Jerry, sounds like you're getting a result that's fairly typical when studying survival, or time to failure, data.  It's often the case that the longer you observe an entity, the greater the odds of an event like death, attrition, or failure.  The data on these kinds of events are often called "right censored."

Maybe the scoring issue to consider is what variables predict time until failure to pay promptly, i.e. survival time.

-lynd

At 11:50 AM 11/5/98 -0500, Jerry Musial wrote:
>Hi,
>       I am looking for help/resources related to credit scoring of
>'existing' customers.  In particular, I am interested in how researchers
>deal with tenure as it relates to whether or not one of our customers will
>continue to pay their bills in a timely manner.  We intuitively feel that
>the longer a customer has been with us (and paying us) the better credit
>risk.  However, my initial results show that the longer a person has been
>with us, the odds of his not paying increase.  Anyone have any ideas?
>
>Thanks
>Jerry Musial
>BellSouth Cellular
>
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