DM: Re:

[Dr. Andrew A. Kramer]

Did you use training & testing data sets when you ran your model, or
just use the 8000 observations to train the network? If the latter, 
than I'm not
surprised at your results.

Andrew A. Kramer, Ph.D.
Future Analytics, Inc.

Hallberg Rassy wrote:
> 
> Dear Friend
> 
> I have now a problem and would like to share with you and to 
>receive, if
> possible your opinion.
> Hereinafter the picture of situation:
> 1.I'm presently involved in a customer profiling project for a large
> mobile operator.
> 2.The goal is to set up a system able to anticipate the likelyhood 
>of
> churn of  customers
> 3.As a pilot step I extracted call records for 10000 active 
>customers
> plus 4000  churned
> 4.Using SPSS neural connection I made up a neural network based on 
>a set
> of 4000  active+4000 churned
> 5.The data was: calling patterns of july, agoust and september the
> target was:  churn/no churn situation in december
> 6.The results was promising: 90% of real churn anticipated, with a
> cut-off  probability of 80%
> 7.The same network was used on october, nov, dec. data to anticipate
> march churn  the results dropped to a terrific 11% with the same 
>cut-off
> of 80%: totally  useless
> 
> I have formulated some hypotheses
> A.The low time span (three month) is affected by seasonality
> B.The data used are not sufficient to build a reliable network
> C.The tool (SPSS Neural Connection) is not reliable
> 
> Could you give your opinion?
> Many thanks in advance
> 
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